Everyone under the sun have made predictions about what is going to happen during Donald Trumps presidency. Going through these predictions I’m reminded of the fundamental error that the vast majority of people make. Prior to the election results ticking in people conflated what they wanted to happen with what they expected would happen. Those two are not necessarily the same, in fact they are often wildly separate. Most predictors wanted Hillary Clinton to win and they expected it. I personally wanted Donald Trump to win a blowout victory, but I expected Hillary Clinton to be victorious (through election rigging, but that is beside the point). I was able to separate my own desires with the predictions I had based on experience and data. In this post I shall make numerous predictions regarding Trumps presidency. I will make clear the distinctions between my wishes and my predictions. By doing this I believe that the following predictions will be vastly more accurate than those presented in the legacy media. But who knows, I might be completely incorrect. A lot can and will happen between right now and the end of Donald Trumps term.
First of all I think it will be useful to look at an overview of pre-election predictions and look at what actually occurred. The vast majority of news outlets and pundits were very firm in their belief that Donald Trump would not become the presidential nominee of the Republican Party. In fact going back in reverse chronological order:
- They didn’t believe he would secure enough delegates to clinch the nomination (1237)
- Trump would not defeat the combined forces of the other candidates (The Cruz/Kasich alliance in particular)
- Trump would not maintain his primary/caucus victory momentum
- Trump would fail to win a single nominating contest
- Trump would not win a single debate
- Trump would never recover after X incident
- Trump would never file the papers to officially become a candidate
- Trump would never run
Not to mention X % is Trumps “ceiling”. Which was of course broken again and again and yet again. And these predictions only cover the primary process. The predictions of the general election season are too numerous to count.
Looking back at the above predictions armed with the knowledge of how things turned out we can confidently say that the pundits basically “pulled shit out of their collective asses”. Pardon my French.
I could go on all week listing failed predictions, but I will only list a few concering Trumps actual governance. The consensus was that Trump would quickly abandon his campaign promises and themes to basically become a generic republican president. Taking a look at Trumps signed executive orders and actions this prediction also fails based on our scrutiny. Basically Trump has proven his critics and detractors wrong at every turn so far. Can we therefore expect him to be completely successful in delivering his campaign promises and successfully pursuing his agenda?
Sadly the answer is no. I’m not breaking new ground by stating that the political realities of Washington will hamper Trumps efforts. The Deep State-Mainstream Media-Obama holdover complex will make a villainous effort to sabotage Trumps reform agenda. In addition to these powerful enemies Trump also has to wrangle with statists like the big government fans in the Republican Party (Paul Ryan I’m looking at you!). Personally nothing would make me happier than see Trump blow the expectations of essentially everyone out of the water by beeing successful. But I don’t think he will be. If I were to put a percentage on it, I think Trump is going to be approximately 60% successful. The wall will be built. But not without problems during construction. Enviromental groups will protest the impact the wall will have on species living in the border area. Land owners will protest the use of eminent domain. I fully expect to see a Young Turks video about a contractor having hired illegal immigrants to work on the wall.
Obamacare will be repealed, but it will not be replaced with a system that I approve of fully. Taxes will be radically reduced, but not by how much I would like. This has to do with Trumps business/negotiation acumen. He starts with a wild position to gain leverage during the negotiating process. But this is not the whole story. Trump is armed with a powerful mindset and strength of character. During the election Trump often did things that didn’t at first appear to make sense. One fantastic example of this was the leaking of the “John Miller” tapes to the media. The media ate up the seeming Trump scandal regarding having pretended to be his own PR guy back in the 90s. It was revealed during an interview Megyn Kelly has with reporter Sue Carswell that it was in fact Trump himself that was the leaker. At first glance this did not appear to make any sense at all. Why would Trump do this to himself? Looking back some time later we can see that Trump by playing this card owned the news cycle, an important part of his popularity and eventual victory. In addition to this he effectively discredited leaks and the Washington Post in particular. The Post had a 20+ man “Dirt-on-Trump” task force at the time. Trump effectively neutered them and countered anything they might come up with.
Thet being said I really hope that there is some behind the scenes play at the moment regarding health care. I don’t see why it is beneficial to Trump to attack the House Freedom Caucus and publicly supporting the abomination known as Ryancare. I thought I could see the outlines of a Trump chessmove in the tweet encouraging people to watch an episode of Judge Jeanine Pirro’s show on Fox on which she excoriated Ryan and called for him to step down. But then to my great surprise he continued afterwards to attack the Freedom Caucus. I hope this will make sense a year from now.
To sum up Trump has shown remarkable strength of will and staying power. Based on his track record he will pursue his agenda and he will last the full 4 (or 8!) year period in the White House. He will outperform handily what his detractors have said they think he will accomplish, but the combined might of weak republicans, deep state and media will prevent the glorious possibilities that I dream about.
I would not be surprised if Russia were behind the Russia leaks (and not having been involved nefariously in hacking at all). This would be a very effective strategy employing the American news media as a surrogate attack dog weakening the American president.
In your own prognosticating make sure to know the line between want-to-happen and expect-to-happen.
I will follow up this post at a later date. In particular I have some thoughts about the whole Pence-takeover theories and the next presidential election season.