Let’s say your best friend is an avid fan of tobacco. In fact, he never consumes less than a whole pack of cigarettes every day. You on the other hand don’t partake. You have extensive knowledge about the negative health outcomes from smoking that many cigarettes over time. Push the fast forward button a couple of decades and enter a new scene. You’re visiting your friend at the hospital. He came down with lung cancer a couple of years ago and the prognosis isn’t good. At this exact moment, what do you do? How do you help your dear friend out of this horrible situation?
The answer is simply that you can’t. The doctors and medical staff have already exhausted all the available options, now all that can be done is easing the pain until the inevitable end. It is too late. This example shows us the principles often found in problem-solving. The earlier you engage a problem, the easier and less costly it is to solve. The easiest solution for our nicotine aficionado would have been quitting the habit early. There are other different solutions, all of which would have been an improvement over the old situation. He could have smoked less, he could have transitioned to vaping or other vices. All these solutions would have reduced the likelihood of contracting cancer.
The West finds itself in a similar conundrum. We with the knowledge can see the disastrous problems over the horizon. We are currently going from smoking a few cigarettes a day (low immigration) to a pack a day (European Migrant Crisis, open borders). This isn’t good for us in the long term. Unfortunately, our friend “Europe” isn’t willing to listen. We know that solving the problem now, early in the process, is far superior to waiting until the problem escalates. We know with certainty that many Europeans are going to regret their actions (or inaction) today in the future once they realize what they have done. But in the real-world addicts rarely listen to logical, sound arguments from concerned people. Instead they double down. “Nobody tells me what to do!”. This is of course supremely frustrating for those with knowledge. Imagine being a doctor with a cure for a disease and people fighting you all the way in their opposition to taking the aforementioned cure.
I fervently with all my being oppose what I fear is over the horizon. Logic and simple, basic math dictates that the demographic changes and collision of value systems that are happening right now will come to a head sometime in the future. I don’t know how long into the future the situation will explode, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years or longer. But, as a student of history I can see the pattern repeating itself. At first Western European peoples are “nice”. We appease and shy away from confrontation. Then a bit later we are not so nice. In fact, we become absolutely brutal. We went from appeasement as an approach to Hitler’s territorial ambitions to bombing the living daylights out of Germany and dividing the country in two for nearly half a century. The war in the Pacific ended with men, women and children being vaporized in an atomic fireball. Much of the bloodshed and suffering could have been avoided if the coming problems had been engaged head-on much earlier.
Hitler’s Germany was militarily weak early in the 1930’s and during the first few territorial annexations. Had France and the other powers stood up once Hitler took his first steps the tragedies of WW2 could have been avoided. Instead appeasement allowed Hitler to slowly build up his military might and consolidate his gains. It allowed him to construct the platform from which he launched his war of aggression. Tens of millions of people paid the price. I don’t know what form the clash that will consume Europe will take, but I know it won’t be pretty. I wish Europe as a whole could come to its senses and avoid the unpleasantness that is looming. As a peaceful, non-violent person nothing would make me happier.
Until then, political correctness, censorship and the suicidal cultural response to terrorism is bringing us ever closer to an inevitable conflict of epic proportions.